Predictive value of grade point average (GPA), Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), internal examinations (Block) and National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) scores on Medical Council of Canada qualifying examination part I (MCCQE-1) scores.

Background: To determine whether the pre-medical Grade Point Average (GPA), Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), Internal examinations (Block) and National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) scores are correlated with and predict the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part I (MCCQE-1) scores.

Methods: Data from 392 admitted students in the graduating classes of 2010-2013 at University of Manitoba (UofM), College of Medicine was considered. Pearson's correlation to assess the strength of the relationship, multiple linear regression to estimate MCCQE-1 score and stepwise linear regression to investigate the amount of variance were employed.

Results: Complete data from 367 (94%) students were studied. The MCCQE-1 had a moderate-to-large positive correlation with NBME scores and Block scores but a low correlation with GPA and MCAT scores. The multiple linear regression model gives a good estimate of the MCCQE-1 (R2 =0.604). Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that 59.2% of the variation in the MCCQE-1 was accounted for by the NBME, but only 1.9% by the Block exams, and negligible variation came from the GPA and the MCAT.

Conclusions: Amongst all the examinations used at UofM, the NBME is most closely correlated with MCCQE-1.