Predictors of Mortality in Older Homeless Veterans.

Objectives: In this analysis of a cohort of older homeless veterans, we examined psychosocial, health, housing, and employment characteristics to identify predictors of mortality.

Method: Our sample of 3,620 older veterans entered Veteran Affairs homeless programs in years 2000-2003. Fifteen variables from a structured interview described this sample and served as predictors. National Death Index data for years 2000-2011 were used to ascertain death. Survival table analyses were conducted to estimate and plot cumulative survival functions. To determine predictors and estimate hazard functions, Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted.

Results: Five variables (presence of a serious health issue, hospitalization for alcohol abuse, alcohol dependency, unemployment for 3 years, and age 60+) were associated with increased risk of death; three (non-White, drug dependency, and dental problems) were associated with reduced risk. A risk score, based on total unit-weighted risk for all eight predictors, was used to identify three groups that were found to differ significantly in mortality.

Conclusions: These analyses underline the jeopardy faced by older homeless veterans in terms of early death. We were able to identify several variables associated with mortality; more importantly, we were able to show that a risk score based on status for these variables was significantly related to survival.