Reticulo-rumen temperature as a predictor of calving time in primiparous and parous Holstein females.

The objective of this research was to define and analyze drops in reticulo-rumen temperature (Trr) as an indicator of calving time in Holstein females. Data were collected from 111 primiparous and 150 parous Holstein females between November 2012 and March 2013. Between -15 and -5 d relative to anticipated calving date, each female received an orally administered temperature sensing reticulo-rumen bolus that collected temperatures hourly. Daily mean Trr was calculated from d -5 to 0 relative to using all Trr values (A-Trr) or only Trr values ≥37.7°C (W-Trr) not altered by water intake. To identify a Trr drop, 2 methodologies for computing the baseline temperature were used. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to estimate the probability of calving within the next 12 or 24 h for primiparous, parous, and all females, based on the size of the Trr drop. For all GLM, a large drop in Trr corresponded with a large estimated probability of calving. The predictive power of the GLM was assessed using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC curve analyses showed that all models, regardless of methodology in calculation of the baseline or tested category (primiparous or parous), were able to predict calving; however, area under the ROC curve values, an indication of prediction quality, were greater for methods predicting calving within 24 h. Further comparisons between GLM for primiparous and parous, and using baseline 1 and 2, provide insight on the differences in predictive performance. Based on the GLM, Trr drops of 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4°C were identified as useful indicators of parturition and further analyzed using sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios. Based on sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios, the best indicator of calving was an average Trr drop ≥0.2°C, regardless of methodology used to compute the baseline or category of animal evaluated.