[Epidemiological trends in bovine paralytic rabies in central Mexico, 2001-2013].

Objective: To determine the geospatial distribution of bovine paralytic rabies cases transmitted by Desmodus rotundus in the Mexican states of Guanajuato, Querétaro, and San Luis Potosí.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional epidemiological study based on cases reported during statewide campaigns for the control of bovine paralytic rabies in Guanajuato (2008-2013), Querétaro (2005-2013) and San Luis Potosí (2001-2013). All cases were confirmed by direct immunofluorescence. Maps showing the distribution of cases by year and species were constructed using ArcMap version 10.1. To identify areas where conditions favor the appearance of cases, bioclimatic variables were combined with georeferenced cases using MaxEnt version 3.3.3.

Results: Of the 1037 cases recorded, 911 (87.9%) occurred in San Luis Potosí, 82 (7.9%) in Querétaro, and 44 (4.2%) in Guanajuato. Of the total number of cases, 87.4% occurred at altitudes of less than 1500 meters above sea level. In Guanajuato and Querétaro, 77.3% and 42.3% of the cases, respectively, occurred at altitudes greater than 1 500 meters above sea level. Peak incidence was recorded from December to March. The V11 antigenic variant of the virus was the most common (173 cases); it was found in all three states. In the endemic channel, the average number of cases remains within the security zone from January to March but exceeds the median value from April to June. The spatial distribution of cases shows that the disease has spread recently, which correlates with the presence of the vampire bat.

Conclusions: Bovine paralytic rabies has spread to areas that were formerly free of the disease. Environmental characteristics and the altitude above sea level do not limit the appearance of cases. Constant monitoring should be conducted for early case detection. Vaccination should take place before the rainy season starts, without waiting for outbreaks to occur.