Multi-state analysis illustrates treatment success after stem cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia followed by donor lymphocyte infusion.

In the field of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, the common approach is to focus outcome analyses on time to relapse and death, without assessing the impact of post-transplant interventions. We investigated whether a multi-state model would give insight into the events after transplantation in a cohort of patients who were transplanted using a strategy including scheduled donor lymphocyte infusions. Seventy-eight consecutive patients who underwent myeloablative T-cell depleted allogeneic stem cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome were studied. We constructed a multi-state model to analyze the impact of donor lymphocyte infusion and graft-versus-host disease on the probabilities of relapse and non-relapse mortality over time. Based on this model we introduced a new measure for outcome after transplantation which we called 'treatment success': being alive without relapse and immunosuppression for graft-versus-host disease. All relevant clinical events were implemented into the multi-state model and were denoted treatment success or failure (either transient or permanent). Both relapse and non-relapse mortality were causes of failure of comparable magnitude. Whereas relapse was the dominant cause of failure from the transplantation state, its rate was reduced after graft-versus-host disease, and especially after donor lymphocyte infusion. The long-term probability of treatment success was approximately 40%. This probability was increased after donor lymphocyte infusion. Our multi-state model helps to interpret the impact of post-transplantation interventions and clinical events on failure and treatment success, thus extracting more information from observational data.