Objective: To assess the risk of recurrence after a first unprovoked seizure in childhood.
Methods: This was a prospective study of 250 children aged 1 month to 16 years after a first seizure who presented between November 1, 2008 and October 31, 2012. None of the children was treated after the first seizure. Recurrence rates were calculated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and univariate analyses for recurrence risk were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.
Results: One hundred and thirty-five children (54%) had recurrence. Thirty-seven (27%) of the recurrences occurred in the first month, 71 (53%) within 3 months, 95 (70%) within 6 months, and 118 (87%) within 1 year. The risk of seizure recurrence was 38%, 47%, 54%, and 58% at 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. The risk factors for seizure recurrence were remote symptomatic etiology, abnormal electroencephalography, age ≥ 8 years, and a history of prior febrile seizure (partial seizure).
Conclusions: Children should not be routinely treated after a first seizure, and it is important that we consider the recurrence rate and risk.
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