Trends in national licensing examinations in medicine.

Context: As a contribution to this special issue commemorating the journal's 50th volume, this paper seeks to explore directions for national licensing examinations (NLEs) in medicine. Increases in the numbers of new medical schools and the mobility of doctors across national borders mean that NLEs are becoming even more important to ensuring physician competence.

Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of NLEs in the future in the context of global changes in medical education and health care delivery.

Methods: Because the literature related to NLEs is so large, we have not attempted a comprehensive review, but have focused instead on a small number of topics on which we think we have something useful to say. The paper is organised around five predicted trends for NLEs.

Discussion: The first section discusses reasons why we think the use of NLEs will increase in the coming years. The second section discusses the ongoing problem of content specificity and its implications for the design of NLEs. The third section examines the evolution of large-scale, standardised cognitive assessments in NLEs and suggests some future directions. Reflecting the fact that NLEs are, increasingly, attempting to assess more than just knowledge, the fourth section addresses the future of large-scale clinical skills assessments in NLEs, predicting both increases in their use and some shifts in the nature of the stations used. The fifth section discusses workplace-based assessments, predicting increases in their use for formative assessment and identifying some limitations in their direct application in NLEs. The concluding section discusses the cost of NLEs and indulges in some further speculations about their evolution.