Prospective Benefit-Risk Monitoring of New Drugs for Rapid Assessment of Net Favorability in Electronic Health Care Data.

Background: Benefit-risk assessment (BRA) methods can combine measures of benefits and risks into a single value.

Objectives: To examine BRA metrics for prospective monitoring of new drugs in electronic health care data.

Methods: Using two electronic health care databases, we emulated prospective monitoring of three drugs (rofecoxib vs. nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, prasugrel vs. clopidogrel, and denosumab vs. bisphosphonates) using a sequential propensity score-matched cohort design. We applied four BRA metrics: number needed to treat and number needed to harm; incremental net benefit (INB) with maximum acceptable risk; INB with relative-value-adjusted life-years; and INB with quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We determined whether and when the bootstrapped 99% confidence interval (CI) for each metric excluded zero, indicating net favorability of one drug over the other.

Results: For rofecoxib, all four metrics yielded a negative value, suggesting net favorability of nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs over rofecoxib, and the 99% CI for all but the number needed to treat and number needed to harm excluded the null during follow-up. For prasugrel, only the 99% CI for INB-QALY excluded the null, but trends in values over time were similar across the four metrics, suggesting overall net favorability of prasugrel versus clopidogrel. The 99% CI for INB-relative-value-adjusted life-years and INB-QALY excluded the null in the denosumab example, suggesting net favorability of denosumab over bisphosphonates.

Conclusions: Prospective benefit-risk monitoring can be used to determine net favorability of a new drug in electronic health care data. In three examples, existing BRA metrics produced qualitatively similar results but differed with respect to alert generation.