Can endoscopic atrophy predict histological atrophy? Historical study in United Kingdom and Japan.

Aim: To assess the diagnostic concordance between endoscopic and histological atrophy in the United Kingdom and Japan.

Methods: Using published data, a total of 252 patients, 126 in the United Kingdom and 126 in Japan, aged 20 to 80 years, were evaluated. The extent of endoscopic atrophy was classified into five subgroups according to a modified Kimura-Takemoto classification system and was compared with histological findings of atrophy at five biopsy sites according to the updated Sydney system.

Results: The strength of agreement of the extent of atrophy between histology and visual endoscopic inspection showed good reproducibility, with a weighted kappa value of 0.76 (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that three factors were associated with decreased concordance: Japanese ethnicity [odds ratio (OR) 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.43], older age (OR = 0.32, 95%CI: 0.16-0.66) and endoscopic atrophy (OR = 0.10, 95%CI: 0.03-0.36). The strength of agreement between endoscopic and histological atrophy, assessed by cancer risk-oriented grading, was reproducible, with a kappa value of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.75-0.87). Only nine patients (3.6%) were endoscopically underdiagnosed with antral predominant rather than extensive atrophy and were considered false negatives.

Conclusion: Endoscopic grading can predict histological atrophy with few false negatives, indicating that precancerous conditions can be identified during screening endoscopy, particularly in patients in western countries.