The distribution of probability values in medical abstracts: an observational study.

Background: A relatively high incidence of p values immediately below 0.05 (such as 0.047 or 0.04) compared to p values immediately above 0.05 (such as 0.051 or 0.06) has been noticed anecdotally in published medical abstracts. If p values immediately below 0.05 are over-represented, such a distribution may reflect the true underlying distribution of p values or may be due to error (a false distribution). If due to error, a consistent over-representation of p values immediately below 0.05 would be a systematic error due either to publication bias or (overt or inadvertent) bias within studies.

Methods: We searched the Medline 2012 database to identify abstracts containing a p value. Two thousand abstracts out of 80,649 abstracts were randomly selected. Two independent researchers extracted all p values. The p values were plotted and compared to a predicted curve. Chi square test was used to test assumptions and significance was set at 0.05.

Results: 2798 p value ranges and 3236 exact p values were reported. 4973 of these (82%) were significant (<0.05). There was an over-representation of p values immediately below 0.05 (between 0.01 and 0.049) compared to those immediately above 0.05 (between 0.05 and 0.1) (p = 0.001).

Conclusion: The distribution of p values in reported medical abstracts provides evidence for systematic error in the reporting of p values. This may be due to publication bias, methodological errors (underpowering, selective reporting and selective analyses) or fraud.