Tibia Fracture Healing Prediction Using First-Order Mathematical Model.

The prediction of healing period of a tibia fracture in humans across limb using first-order mathematical model is demonstrated. At present, fracture healing is diagnosed using X-rays. Recent studies have demonstrated electric stimulation as a diagnostic tool in fracture healing. A DC electric voltage of 0.7 V was applied across the fracture and stabilized with Teflon coated carbon rings and the data was recorded at different time intervals until the fracture heals. The experimental data fitted a first-order plus dead time zero model (FOPDTZ) that coincided with the mathematical model of electrical simulated tibia fracture limb. Fracture healing diagnosis was proposed using model parameter process gain. Current stabilization in terms of process gain parameter becoming constant indicates that the healing of fracture is a new finding in the work. An error analysis was performed and it was observed that the measured data correlated to the FOPDTZ model with an error of less than 2 percent. Prediction of fracture healing period was done by one of the identified model parameters, namely, process gain. Moreover, mathematically, it is justified that once the fracture is completely united there is no capacitance present across the fracture site, which is a novelty of the work.