A (210)Pb-based chronological model for recent sediments with random entries of mass and activities: Model development.

Unsupported (210)Pb ((210)Pbexc) vs. mass depth profiles do not contain enough information as to extract a unique chronology when both, (210)Pbexc fluxes and mass sediment accumulation rates (SAR) independently vary with time. Restrictive assumptions are needed to develop a suitable dating tool. A statistical correlation between fluxes and SAR seems to be a quite general rule. This paper builds up a new (210)Pb-based dating tool by using such a statistical correlation. It operates with SAR and initial activities that closely follow normal distributions, what leads to the expected correlation between fluxes and SAR. An intelligent algorithm solves their best arrangement downcore to fit the experimental (210)Pbexc vs. mass depth profile, generating then solutions for the chronological line, and for the histories of SAR and fluxes. Parametric maps of a χ-function serve to find out the solution and to support error estimates. Optionally, the model's answers can be better constrained through the use of time markers. The performance of the model is illustrated with a synthetic core, and with real cases using published data for varved sediment cores.