The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV, a New Scoring System for Predicting Mortality and Complications of Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

Objectives: Severe acute pancreatitis is associated with significant morbidity/mortality; thus, the ability to predict hospital course is imperative. An updated version of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE), APACHE IV, has recently been validated. Unlike other versions, APACHE IV uses hepatobiliary parameters and accounts for multiple comorbid conditions and sedation. The intention of this study was to examine APACHE IV for predicting mortality and secondary outcomes for pancreatitis in a prospective cohort. In addition, we compared APACHE IV to APACHE II, Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, and Ranson criterion.

Methods: We prospectively collected physiologic parameters for each scoring system in 266 patients with severe acute pancreatitis from August 2011 to April 2014. Prognostic value of each score was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results: Among 266 patients, 59% were men, 52% were white, and 36.5% had alcohol-induced pancreatitis. Mortality occurred in 15 (5.6%), and an APACHE IV of 44 or greater predicted mortality in 100% of cases. The receiver operating characteristic curve for APACHE IV was 0.93 (confidence interval [CI], 0.88-0.97); APACHE II, 0.87 (CI, 0.80-0.94); Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, 0.86 (CI, 0.78-0.94); and Ranson criterion, 0.90 (CI, 0.94-0.96).

Conclusion: The APACHE IV is a valid means for predicting mortality and disease-related complications in acute pancreatitis.