[Time series analysis of Enterobacter cloacae nosocomial infections in children hospitalized in the pediatric intensive care unit].

Objective: To characterize the time distribution of the incidence of Enterobacter cloacae nosocomial infections in children hospitalized in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University.

Methods: The clinical data of children with Enterobacter cloacae nosocomial infections in the PICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University between January 2010 and December 2013 were collected. The monthly number of cases of Enterobacter cloacae nosocomial infections was recorded, and time series analysis was performed using SPSS 21.0 software. The obtained prediction model was verified using the data from January to June in 2014.

Results: A total of 157 cases of Enterobacter cloacae nosocomial infections were reported in the PICU between January 2010 and December 2013, including 33 cases in 2010, 35 cases in 2011, 37 cases in 2012, and 52 cases in 2013. Time series analysis of the monthly number of cases of nosocomial infections reveals a fitted curve with a clear pattern of seasonal variation (R2=0.702, Ljung-Box Q(18)=36.021, P=0.004), with peaks in May, June, and July. The verification using the data from January to June in 2014 showed small differences between the predicted values and the actual values.

Conclusions: In the PICU of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, the incidence of Enterobacter cloacae nosocomial infections is high in May, June, and July every year. The prediction model is accurate and can provide a reference for infection prevention.