Risk index for pelvic organ prolapse based on established individual risk factors.

Purpose: To identify known risk factors for pelvic organ prolapse (POP) in a hospital cohort and to develop a prolapse risk index (PRI).

Methods: Risk factors for POP were recorded in women who underwent surgery with symptomatic POP (n = 500) or non-POP gynaecological conditions (n = 236). Descriptive statistics were determined by Chi-squared and Mann-Whitney U tests. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis was performed for all patients and subgroups by age (<60 and ≥60 years). Primary outcome measures were variables with the strongest impact on prolapse and PRI development. Secondary: specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively), and Cohen's kappa statistic (κ).

Results: Stepwise multivariate regression analysis (n = 736) showed difficult obstetric history [odds ratio (OR) 10.04], family history of POP (OR 7.28), and ≥10 years since menopause (OR 4.53) were independent risk factors for prolapse (P < 0.001). When one of the three variables with the strongest influence on POP development was present, the PRI for all women showed a PPV of 82%, NPV of 68%, and κ of 0.47 for predicting symptomatic POP requiring treatment. In women under 60 years (n = 349), logistic regression revealed difficult obstetric history (OR 9.108), positive family history (OR 8.016), and body mass index (OR 2.274) as independent risk factors.

Conclusions: Eighty-seven percent of our patient cohort with symptomatic POP requiring therapy could be identified by the PRI, which may be useful for counselling and education.