The predictive value of human papillomavirus testing for the outcome of patients conservatively treated for stage IA squamous cell cervical carcinoma.

Background: Although it is hypothesised that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing may have a role in surveillance of patients conservatively treated for stage IA squamous cell cervical carcinoma, research on this topic has been minimal.

Objectives: To determine: (1) the changes in HPV test result from treatment onward; (2) the time to viral clearance; and (3) the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) of HPV test result for the detection of CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) during follow-up.

Study Design: In a multicentre retrospective follow-up study of a consecutive series (1997-2009) of 91 patients, longitudinal outcome measures were estimated as cumulative probabilities using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results: For patients testing HPV-positive at the first follow-up visit (n=44), the probability of change to negative rose from 0 to 0.78 between 7 and 21 months after treatment. For HPV-negative patients (n=47), the probability of change to positive rose to 0.13 between 9 and 26 months. After a median follow-up of 50 months (range, 2-80), the NPV for CIN2+ was 1.00. The PPV was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.77) after 26 months. The median time to detection was 5 months.

Conclusions: If adequately confirmed, these findings would indicate that HPV testing is capable to identify the patients who have had their lesions fully removed, and would make it possible to focus follow-up efforts on a subset of patients at high risk of residual or progressive disease.