Epidemiological Modeling of Bovine Brucellosis in India.

Proc IEEE Int Conf Big Data

Department of Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA.

Published: October 2014

The study objective is to develop an epidemiological model of brucellosis transmission dynamics among cattle in India and to estimate the impact of different prevention and control strategies. The prevention and control strategies are test-and-slaughter, transmission rate reduction, and mass vaccination. We developed a mathematical model based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model to simulate brucellosis transmission dynamics, calibrated to the endemically stable levels of bovine brucellosis prevalence of cattle in India. We analyzed the epidemiological benefit of different rates of reduced transmission and vaccination. Test-and-slaughter is an effective strategy for elimination and eradication of brucellosis, but socio-cultural constraints forbid culling of cattle in India. Reducing transmission rates lowered the endemically stable levels of brucellosis prevalence correspondingly. One-time vaccination lowered prevalence initially but increased with influx of new susceptible births. While this epidemiological model is a basic representation of brucellosis transmission dynamics in India and constrained by limitations in surveillance data, this study illustrates the comparative epidemiological impact of different bovine brucellosis prevention and control strategies.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4537291PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/BigData.2014.7004420DOI Listing

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