Anthropometric trends and the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in a Lithuanian urban population aged 45-64 years.

Aims: To estimate trends in anthropometric indexes from 1992 to 2008 and to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in relation to anthropometric indexes (body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio).

Methods: Data from the three surveys (1992-2008) are presented. A random sample of 5147 subjects aged 45-64 years was selected for statistical analysis. During follow-up there were 141 deaths from cardiovascular disease (excluding those with cardiovascular disease at entry). Cox's regression was used to estimate the associations between anthropometric indexes and cardiovascular disease mortality.

Results: During a 17-year period among men, the prevalence of obesity (body mass index ⩾ 30 kg/m(2)) increased from 18.4% to 32.1% (p < 0.001) and a high level of waist:hip ratio (> 0.9) from 59.3% to 72.9% (p < 0.001). The risk profile of obesity did not change in women, but prevalence of a high level of waist:hip ratio (> 0.85) increased from 25.9% to 41.5% (p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted Cox's regression models showed that body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio, waist:height ratio were associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men (hazard ratios 1.40, 1.45, 1.49, 1.46 respectively (p < 0.01)).

Conclusions: Our data indicate that anthropometric measures such as body mass index, waist circumference, waist:hip ratio and waist:height ratio are good indicators of cardiovascular disease mortality risk only in men aged 45-64 years.