Prediction of mortality in patients with colorectal perforation based on routinely available parameters: a retrospective study.

Introduction: Even after surgery and intensive postoperative management, the mortality rate associated with colorectal perforation is high. Identification of mortality markers using routinely available preoperative parameters is important.

Methods: We enrolled consecutive patients with colorectal perforation who underwent operations from January 2010 to January 2015. We divided them into a mortality and survivor group and compared clinical characteristics between the two groups. Additionally, we compared the mortality rate between different etiologies: malignant versus benign and diverticular versus nondiverticular. We used the χ (2) and Mann-Whitney U tests and a logistic regression model to identify factors associated with mortality.

Results: We enrolled 108 patients, and 52 (48 %) were male. The mean age at surgery was 71 ± 13 years. The postoperative mortality rate was 12 % (13 patients). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a high patient age (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.020-1.181) and low preoperative systolic blood pressure (OR, 0.98; 95 % CI, 0.953-0.999) were independent risk factors for mortality in patients with colorectal perforation. In the subgroup analysis, there was no significant difference between the malignant and benign group (11.8 % vs. 23.9 %, respectively; p = 0.970), while the diverticular group had a significantly lower mortality rate than the nondiverticular group (2.6 % vs. 17.1 %, respectively; p = 0.027).

Conclusions: Older patients and patients with low preoperative blood pressure had a high risk of mortality associated with colorectal perforation. For such patients, operations and postoperative management should be performed carefully.