The Impact of the ACA on Premiums: Evidence from the Self-Employed.

This article examines the impact of the Affordable Care Act on premiums by studying a segment of the nongroup market, the self-employed. Because self-employed health insurance premiums are deductible, tax data contain comprehensive individual-level information on the premiums paid by this group prior to the establishment of health insurance exchanges. We compare these prior premiums to reference silver premiums available on the exchanges and find that exchange premiums are 4.2 percent higher on average among the entire sample but 42.3 percent lower on average after taxes and subsidies. We also examine which type of exchange coverage would cost less than the individual's prior health insurance premiums and find that almost 60 percent of families could purchase bronze plans for less than their prior premiums, though only about a quarter could purchase platinum plans. After taxes and subsidies, the fractions increase to over 85 percent for bronze plans and over half for platinum plans.