Clinical implication of serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 for the prediction of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of pancreas.

Background: Little is known about the prognostic significance of serum carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentrations for predicting malignancy in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of pancreas.

Method: The study cohort consisted of 367 patients with surgical biopsy proven IPMN at Seoul National University Hospital. Preoperative serum tumor markers were evaluated and compared with other clinical variables.

Results: Malignant pathology (high grade dysplasia [HGD] and invasive IPMN) was identified in 117 (31.9%) patients. Elevated serum CA19-9 was more frequent in patients with malignant (34.2%, P < 0.001; invasive IPMN vs. HGD 47.9% vs. 11.4%, P < 0.001) and main duct type (40.0%, P = 0.003) IPMN. Multivariate analysis showed main pancreatic duct (MPD) >5 mm (P < 0.001), mural nodules (P < 0.001), and elevated serum CA19-9 (P < 0.001) were independent predictors of malignancy. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 34.2%, 92.4%, and 73.8%, respectively, for elevated serum CA19-9; 63.3%, 78.0%, and 73.3%, for MPD >5 mm; and 59.0%, 86.4%, and 77.7%, for mural nodules.

Conclusion: Serum CA19-9 is significantly higher in patients with malignant IPMN, especially in patients with invasive and main duct type IPMN. The diagnostic power of serum CA19-9 in predicting malignancy is comparable to that of MPD >5 mm and mural nodules.