Prognosis of new-onset heart failure outpatients and collagen biomarkers.

Background: Prognosis of heart failure patients has been defined in hospital-based or retrospective studies. This study aimed to characterize prognosis of outpatients with new-onset preserved or reduced ejection fraction heart failure; to explore the role of collagen turnover biomarkers (MMP2, MMP9, TIMP1) in predicting prognosis; and to analyse their relationship with echocardiographic parameters and final diagnosis.

Methods: This is an observational, prospective, longitudinal study. Outpatients with new-onset heart failure symptoms referred to a one-stop clinic were included. Echocardiography and biomarkers plasma levels determination were performed at the inclusion. A prospective follow-up was conducted to report cardiovascular events. The discriminant analysis was applied to identify the parameters related to cardiovascular outcomes.

Results: A total of 172 patients (75 ± 9 years) were included, 67% with heart failure (64% preserved and 36% with reduced ejection fraction). During follow-up (median 34.5 months), 32.6% had at least one cardiovascular event and 9.9% died. Heart failure groups showed no differences in cardiovascular outcomes with a higher rate of events than nonheart failure patients. MMP2 and TIMP1 were correlated with diastolic dysfunction (Rho 0.349 and 0.294, P < 0.001). In the discriminant analysis, the combination of biomarkers with clinical, biochemical and echocardiographic parameters was useful to predict cardiovascular outcomes (AUC ROC 0.806, Wilks lambda 0.7688, P < 0.001).

Conclusions: Prognosis of outpatients with new-onset heart failure symptoms is comparable between heart failure with preserved or reduced subgroups. The addition of biomarkers specially MMP2 and high sensitive troponin I to other clinical, biochemical and echocardiographic variables can predict cardiovascular prognosis at the time of diagnosis.