Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza among Tuberculosis Deaths in South Africa, 1999-2009.

Background: Published data on the interaction between influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are limited. We aimed to estimate the influenza-associated mortality among individuals with PTB in South Africa from 1999-2009.

Methods: We modelled the excess influenza-associated mortality by applying Poisson regression models to monthly PTB and non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths, using laboratory-confirmed influenza as a covariate.

Results: PTB deaths increased each winter, coinciding with influenza virus circulation. Among individuals of any age, mean annual influenza-associated PTB mortality rate was 164/100,000 person-years (n = 439). The rate of non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths was 27/100,000 (n = 1125) for HIV-infected and 5/100,000 (n = 2367) for HIV-uninfected individuals of all ages. Among individuals aged <65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-infected (relative risk (RR): 5.2; 95% CI: 4.6-5.9) and HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 61.0; CI: 41.4-91.0). Among individuals aged ≥65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 13.0; 95% CI: 12.0-14.0).

Conclusion: We observed an increased risk of influenza-associated mortality in persons with PTB compared to non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths. If confirmed in other settings, our findings may support recommendations for active inclusion of patients with TB for influenza vaccination and empiric influenza anti-viral treatment of patients with TB during influenza epidemics.