Development of BCG Scar and Subsequent Morbidity and Mortality in Rural Guinea-Bissau.

Background: Previous studies have found that BCG vaccination has nonspecific beneficial effects on child survival, especially among children who developed a BCG scar. These studies have mostly been done in settings with a high scar frequency. In rural Guinea-Bissau, many children do not develop a scar; we tested the hypothesis that among BCG-vaccinated children, a vaccination scar was associated with lower mortality and fewer hospital admissions.

Methods: During 2009-2011, children <5 years of age in villages followed by Bandim Health Project's demographic surveillance system had their scar status assessed at semiannual visits. We compared mortality and hospital admission rates of scar-positive and scar-negative BCG-vaccinated children during 6 months of follow-up in Cox proportional hazards models.

Results: Among 15 911 BCG-vaccinated children, only 52% had a scar. There were 106 non-injury-related deaths among scar-positive children and 137 among scar-negative children. The mortality rate ratio (MRR) was 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], .56-.96) overall; 0.48 (95% CI, .26-.90) in infancy, 0.69 (95% CI, .45-1.05) in the second year of life, and 0.89 (95% CI, .61-1.31) in the third-fifth year of life. The association between scar positivity and lower mortality differed significantly by cause of death and was strongest for respiratory infections (MRR, 0.20 [95% CI, .07-.55]). There were 99 hospital admissions among scar-positive children and 125 admissions among scar-negative children, resulting in an incidence rate ratio of 0.74 (95% CI, .60-.92).

Conclusions: Among BCG-vaccinated children in a setting with low scar prevalence, having a scar is associated with lower mortality and morbidity. BCG scar prevalence may be an important marker of vaccination program quality.