Conditional survival of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in surgical and nonsurgical patients: a retrospective analysis report from a single institution in China.

Background: Conditional survival (CS) could offer reliable prognostic information for patients who survived beyond a specified time since diagnosis when the impact of late effects have the greatest influence on prognosis. We aim to investigate CS for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients with surgery and nonsurgery.

Methods: Chinese PDAC patients between January 2002 and September 2012 were reviewed for analyses. CS rates were calculated for survivors after surgery and nonsurgery at different time points.

Results: Several clinicopathologic features were associated with overall survival (OS) in each subgroup including curative resection, palliative surgery, and nonsurgery. Both univariate and multivariate analyses showed that chemotherapy was a critical predictor for OS regardless of treatment status. CS rates were higher in the curative resected patients than other cases at the same time points. Importantly, stratification of 1-year CS by carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), (carbohydrate antigen) CA19-9, and tumor stage showed lower CEA, CA19-9, and tumor stage associated with favorable 1-year CS over time (P = 0.016, 0.009 and 0.003).

Conclusions: Dynamic CS estimates could be an accurate assessment for the prognosis of PDAC patients, allowing patients and clinicians to project subsequent survival based on time change.