High Ambient Temperatures and Risk of Motor Vehicle Crashes in Catalonia, Spain (2000-2011): A Time-Series Analysis.

Background: Experimental studies have shown a decrease in driving performance at high temperatures. The epidemiological evidence for the relationship between heat and motor vehicle crashes is not consistent.

Objectives: We estimated the impact of high ambient temperatures on the daily number of motor vehicle crashes and, in particular, on crashes involving driver performance factors (namely distractions, driver error, fatigue, or sleepiness).

Methods: We performed a time-series analysis linking daily counts of motor vehicle crashes and daily temperature or occurrence of heat waves while controlling for temporal trends. All motor vehicle crashes with victims that occurred during the warm period of the years 2000-2011 in Catalonia (Spain) were included. Temperature data were obtained from 66 weather stations covering the region. Poisson regression models adjusted for precipitation, day of the week, month, year, and holiday periods were fitted to quantify the associations.

Results: The study included 118,489 motor vehicle crashes (an average of 64.1 per day). The estimated risk of crashes significantly increased by 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 5.1%] during heat wave days, and this association was stronger (7.7%, 95% CI: 1.2%, 14.6%) when restricted to crashes with driver performance-associated factors. The estimated risk of crashes with driver performance factors significantly increased by 1.1% (95% CI: 0.1%, 2.1%) for each 1 °C increase in maximum temperature.

Conclusions: Motor vehicle crashes involving driver performance-associated factors were increased in association with heat waves and increasing temperature. These findings are relevant for designing preventive plans in a context of global warming.