[Spatiotemporal dynamics of maize water suitability and assessment of agricultural drought in Liaoning Province, China from 1981 to 2010].

Maize water suitability (MWS) model was developed at growth stage scale. Frequency and severity of drought were evaluated by combining MWS estimates and agricultural meteorological drought indexes. The MWS at each growth stage was calculated by using maize observational data and conventional meteorological data at 52 sites in Liaoning during the period from 1981 to 2010. Based on the climatic trend and abrupt change analysis, spatiotemporal dynamics of MWS were investigated. Meanwhile, occurrence of agricultural drought and its severity were also estimated. The results showed that the variation of MWS largely differed at different growth stages. Climatic abrupt change happened in 1994, 1996 and 1999 at the stages of emergence to seven leaves (II), jointing to tasseling (IV) and physiological maturity to maturity (VI). During the past 30 years, MWS showed an obvious increasing trend at the stages of sowing to emergence(I) , seven leaves to jointing(III), IV and tasseling to physiological maturity(V), while it showed a decreasing trend at the stages of II and VI, and that at VI stage was statistically significant. In addition, the climatic trend of MWS showed apparently spatial variability. The frequencies of drought at different severities varied with maize growth stages. Areas of high variability of MWS were located in the Northwest and South of Liaoning at the stages of I , II , III and VI, where were also the regions of high frequency of mid- and severe-drought. At the stages of IV and V, the frequency of drought was low and only light- and mid-drought occurred in few areas. In conclusion, the regional mean MWS could be capable to reasonably assess the agricultural drought in Liaoning at the regional scale.