Predictors of functional outcome after a manic episode.

Background: The identification of functional outcome predictors after acute episodes of bipolar disorders (BD) may allow designing appropriate treatment aiming at restoring psychosocial functioning. Our objective was to identify the best functional outcome predictors at a 6-month follow-up after an index manic episode.

Methods: We conducted a naturalistic trial (MANACOR) focusing on the global burden of BD, with special emphasis on manic episode-associated costs. We observed patients with BD seen in services of four hospitals in Catalonia (Spain).The total sample included 169 patients with chronic DSM-IV-TR BD I suffering from an acute manic episode who were followed-up for 6 months. In this subanalysis we report the results of a stepwise multiple regression conducted by entering in the model those clinical and sociodemographic variables that were identified through preliminary bivariate Pearson correlations and using total scores on the Functioning Assessment Short Test (FAST) at the 6-month follow-up as the dependent variable.

Results: Number of previous depressive episodes (Beta=3.25; t=3.23; p=0.002), presence of psychotic symptoms during the manic index episode (Beta=7.007; t=2.2; p=0.031) and the Body Mass Index (BMI) at baseline (Beta=0.62; t=2.09; p=0.041) were best predictors of functional outcome after a manic episode.

Limitations: The main limitations of this study include the retrospective assessment of the episodes, which can be a source of bias, and the 6-month follow-up might have been too short for assessing the course of a chronic illness.

Conclusions: Psychotic symptoms at index episode, number of past depressive episodes, and BMI predict worse outcome after 6 months follow-up after a manic episode, and may constitute the target of specific treatment strategies.