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Risk-Based Decision Making for Reoccupation of Contaminated Areas Following a Wide-Area Anthrax Release. | LitMetric

Risk-Based Decision Making for Reoccupation of Contaminated Areas Following a Wide-Area Anthrax Release.

Risk Anal

Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

Published: July 2015

AI Article Synopsis

  • - The article analyzes how to respond effectively after an anthrax attack in urban areas, focusing on strategies to safely reoccupy contaminated sites after exposure to Bacillus anthracis spores.
  • - It examines various response options, such as building decontamination, vaccination for individuals, and scenarios for evacuation, using a decision tree to evaluate their costs and benefits based on different risk levels.
  • - Findings suggest that for high infection risks (over 11%), evacuating and decontaminating is best, while lower risks may require vaccination alone, with a recommendation for vaccination when decontamination is less than 99.99% effective.

Article Abstract

This article presents an analysis of postattack response strategies to mitigate the risks of reoccupying contaminated areas following a release of Bacillus anthracis spores (the bacterium responsible for causing anthrax) in an urban setting. The analysis is based on a hypothetical attack scenario in which individuals are exposed to B. anthracis spores during an initial aerosol release and then placed on prophylactic antibiotics that successfully protect them against the initial aerosol exposure. The risk from reoccupying buildings contaminated with spores due to their reaerosolization and inhalation is then evaluated. The response options considered include: decontamination of the buildings, vaccination of individuals reoccupying the buildings, extended evacuation of individuals from the contaminated buildings, and combinations of these options. The study uses a decision tree to estimate the costs and benefits of alternative response strategies across a range of exposure risks. Results for best estimates of model inputs suggest that the most cost-effective response for high-risk scenarios (individual chance of infection exceeding 11%) consists of evacuation and building decontamination. For infection risks between 4% and 11%, the preferred option is to evacuate for a short period, vaccinate, and then reoccupy once the vaccine has taken effect. For risks between 0.003% and 4%, the preferred option is to vaccinate only. For risks below 0.003%, none of the mitigation actions have positive expected monetary benefits. A sensitivity analysis indicates that for high-infection-likelihood scenarios, vaccination is recommended in the case where decontamination efficacy is less than 99.99%.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12383DOI Listing

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