The total sale of prescription drugs with an abuse potential predicts the number of excessive users: a national prescription database study.

Background: Prescription drug sales may vary considerably across regions and over time. This study aimed to assess whether there is an association between mean drug sales and prevalence of excessive use in a range of psychotropic prescription drugs with an abuse potential, and if so, whether the variation in mean drug sales mostly reflects variation in the prevalence of excessive use or mostly reflects variation in non-excessive use.

Methods: Data on all filled prescriptions taken from the Norwegian prescription database for 10 drugs with an abuse potential (pain relievers, anxiolytics, and hypnotics) during one calendar year (2005) in Norway (n = 4,053,624) included number of defined daily doses (DDD). These were aggregated to individual level (n = 815,836) and county level (n = 19).

Results: Analyses of individual level data showed that the distribution of drug use was skewed; those who used more than 365 DDD per year accounted for almost half of the sales of both anxiolytics and hypnotics. At the county level, the mean sales per inhabitant and the prevalence of excessive users were closely correlated, but both prevalence of non-excessive use and prevalence of excessive drug use were associated with the county-wise variation in mean drug sales.

Conclusion: Despite a strong individual control of access to psychotropic drugs through health personnel' prescribing, a small proportion of users account for a large fraction of the sales of these drugs. The sales vary significantly between regions and this variation is closely associated with the prevalence of excessive users. This suggests that sales figures as such may be used as an indicator to monitor variations in excessive use between regions and over time, and to evaluate interventions targeting over-prescription and excessive use.