Structured additive regression models with spatial correlation to estimate under-five mortality risk factors in Ethiopia.

Background: The risk of a child dying before reaching five years of age is highest in Sub-Saharan African countries. But Child mortality rates have shown substantial decline in Ethiopia. It is important to identify factors affecting under-five mortality.

Methods: A structured additive logistic regression model which accounts the spatial correlation was adopted to estimate under-five mortality risk factors. The 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data was used for this study.

Results: The analysis showed that the risk of under-five mortality increases as the family size approaches seven and keeps increasing. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the mortality. Moreover, for older mothers, the chance of their child to dying before reaching five is diminishes.

Conclusion: The model enables simultaneous modeling of possible nonlinear effects of covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Our findings are relevant because the identified risk factors can be used to provide priority areas for intervention activities by the government to combat under-five mortality in Ethiopia.