Cost-effectiveness of community-based strategies to strengthen the continuum of HIV care in rural South Africa: a health economic modelling analysis.

Background: Home HIV counselling and testing (HTC) achieves high coverage of testing and linkage to care compared with existing facility-based approaches, particularly among asymptomatic individuals. In a modelling analysis we aimed to assess the effect on population-level health and cost-effectiveness of a community-based package of home HTC in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods: We parameterised an individual-based model with data from home HTC and linkage field studies that achieved high coverage (91%) and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (80%) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Costs were derived from a linked microcosting study. The model simulated 10,000 individuals over 10 years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for the intervention relative to the existing status quo of facility-based testing, with costs discounted at 3% annually.

Findings: The model predicted implementation of home HTC in addition to current practice to decrease HIV-associated morbidity by 10–22% and HIV infections by 9–48% with increasing CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation. Incremental programme costs were US$2·7 million to $4·4 million higher in the intervention scenarios than at baseline, and costs increased with higher CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation; antiretroviral therapy accounted for 48–87% of total costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per disability-adjusted life-year averted were $1340 at an antiretroviral therapy threshold of CD4 count lower than 200 cells per μL, $1090 at lower than 350 cells per μL, $1150 at lower than 500 cells per μL, and $1360 at universal access to antiretroviral therapy.

Interpretation: Community-based HTC with enhanced linkage to care can result in increased HIV testing coverage and treatment uptake, decreasing the population burden of HIV-associated morbidity and mortality. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are less than 20% of South Africa's gross domestic product per person, and are therefore classed as very cost effective. Home HTC can be a viable means to achieve UNAIDS' ambitious new targets for HIV treatment coverage.

Funding: National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.