Prevalence trends in lifestyle-related risk factors.

Background: The regional prevalence of risk factors can vary over time. The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) addresses prevalence trends for common risk factors in a region in northeast Germany.

Methods: A longitudinal study was carried out from 1997 to 2001 (SHIP-0, with 4308 subjects), and a second, independent random sample of the population in the same region was studied from 2008 to 2012 (SHIP-Trend, with 4420 subjects). All data were standardized with post-stratification weighting derived from the adult population of the state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.

Results: SHIP reveals a marked decline of mean alcohol consumption in the adult population, from 5.57 g/day (95% confidence interval, 5.51-5.63) to 3.12 g/day (95% CI 3.09-3.15). The percentage of active smokers among men declined from 38.6% (95% CI 36.0-41.2) to 34.3% (95% CI 32.1-36.6). Simultaneously, however, there was a rightward shift of the BMI distribution, with a marked increase in the prevalence of obesity, from 24.7% to 32.0%. There was a corresponding increase in the prevalence of diabetes, from 9.1% to 13.8%. Compared to eleven years ago, the amount of exercise taken during free time has risen among the elderly, but fallen among young women.

Conclusion: Tobacco and alcohol consumption have declined over the past decade, although this study may have overestimated these trends through a combination of selection bias and reporting bias. Meanwhile, the northeast German population now has a worse metabolic risk profile, as indicated by the increased prevalence of obesity and diabetes. Society as a whole must take measures to combat this trend.