Modeling the Role of pH on Baltic Sea Cyanobacteria.

We simulate pH-dependent growth of cyanobacteria with an ecosystem model for the central Baltic Sea. Four model components-a life cycle model of cyanobacteria, a biogeochemical model, a carbonate chemistry model and a water column model-are coupled via the framework for aquatic biogeochemical models. The coupled model is forced by the output of a regional climate model, based on the A1B emission scenario. With this coupled model, we perform simulations for the period 1968-2098. Our simulation experiments suggest that in the future, cyanobacteria growth is hardly affected by the projected pH decrease. However, in the simulation phase prior to 1980, cyanobacteria growth and N2-fixation are limited by the relatively high pH. The observed absence of cyanobacteria before the 1960s may thus be explained not only by lower eutrophication levels, but also by a higher alkalinity.