Predictors of failure in medical students.

Purpose: This study aimed to identify the predictors of failure in medical students.

Methods: We conducted a 10-year follow-up survey of 231 medical students. The students' general characteristics, study-related factors, health-related behavior, and self-perceived health were examined using questionnaires that were given late in the first year of a premedical course. We evaluated the failure incidence of students using school records from the second year of a premedical course to the fourth year of medical school. The statistical analyses that were used were chi2-test, student t-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis.

Results: Sixty-five students experienced failure. Thirty-seven (56.9%) had 1 failure, 11 (16.9%) had 2 failures, 8 (12.3%) had 3 failures, 4 (6.2%) had 4 failures, and 5 (7.7%) had 5 failures. From the results of multiple logistic regression, the rates of failure were significantly higher for those whose grade point average (GPA) in the first year of a premedical course was below 2.5 (Relative Risk [RR]=6.52, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.42~29.8), who smoked more than 1 pack of cigarettes per day (RR=7.37, 95% CI: 1.23~44.07), who drank more (RR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.02~1.33), and exercised less (RR=0.997, 95% CI: 0.995~0.999).

Conclusion: It was demonstrated that the incidence of failure in medical students was reflected in their academic records in the first year of a premedical course and by unhealthy lifestyles. This study suggests that students who have poor academic marks and unhealthy lifestyles in the first year of a premedical course should be properly guided to reduce the incidence of failure.