Trends in animal rabies surveillance in the endemic state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Rabies is a viral zoonosis affecting mammal species and causes large economic losses. Included among the neglected diseases, it is still insufficiently addressed by governments and the international community, despite formal surveillance and control programs. This study used a dataset of 10,112 rabies diagnoses in animals provided by the Brazilian passive surveillance system from 2001 to 2012. The positivity rate of the tested samples was 26.4%, and a reduction in the total samples sent during the last six years was observed. The kernel density map indicated case concentration in the south region and a decrease in density of rabies cases in the second period studied (2007 to 2012). The directional trend of positive rabies diagnoses remained in the south region, as shown by the standard deviational ellipse. The spatial scan statistic identified three large clusters of positive diagnoses, one in the first period (2001-2006) and two in the second period (2007-2012), indicating an expansion of risk areas. The decrease in rabies cases from 2006 to 2012 does not necessarily reflect lower viral circulation or improvement in actions by epidemiological surveillance; this decrease could indicate a deficiency in epidemiological surveillance during the observation period due to the increase in the silent areas. Surveillance should maintain an increasing or constant number of tests during the years in addition to a reduction in the number of outbreaks of rabies, which would indicate a lower positivity rate. The findings in this study indicate deterioration in the effectiveness of the passive surveillance for rabies. The number of rabies cases, total number of tests performed and positivity rate are good indicators for evaluating passive surveillance. This paper can function as a guide for the assessment and improvement of the actions in passive surveillance of rabies.