Incidence of malignant mesothelioma of the pleura in Québec and Canada from 1984 to 2007, and projections from 2008 to 2032.

Background: Continuous increase in male incidence of malignant mesothelioma of the pleura (MMP) despite the drop of asbestos production since 1980 in Québec motivated this study aiming to assess when the rates of MMP will decline.

Methods: Age-standardized rates and trends were estimated over the 1984-2007 period by sex for Québec versus "Canada-excluding-Québec" (Can-Qc). An age-cohort regression was used to make projections for 2008-2032.

Results: Average rates of MMP in Québec men and women were significantly higher than in Can-Qc. Projected rates peak between 2003 and 2012 in all four study populations and decline thereafter.

Conclusion: The higher MMP rates and observed/projected time patterns in Québec men are consistent with past asbestos production and occupational exposures. The excess in Québec women may also be explained by domestic and, for some, by neighborhood exposures. To pursue the decrease in MMP rates beyond 2032, efforts to reduce asbestos exposure should be maintained.