Predictive factors for surgery among patients with pancreatic cysts in the absence of high-risk features for malignancy.

Background: Without a reliable biopsy technique for pancreatic cysts, consensus-based guidelines are used to guide surgical utilization. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the proportion of operations performed outside of these guidelines.

Methods: A 5-year retrospective review between July 1, 2007, and June 30, 2012, was performed of consecutive patients seen at a single tertiary medical center for a pancreatic cyst. Manual chart review for relevant clinical variables and cyst characteristics was performed.

Results: During this period, 148 patients underwent surgery, and of these, 23 (16 %) patients had no high-risk criteria by the 2006 Sendai criteria. None of these harbored high-grade dysplastic or cancerous lesions. A high cyst carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (35 %), patient anxiety (26 %), and physician concern (22 %) were explicit reasons to proceed to surgery. An elevated cyst CEA level >192 ng/ml was the most significant predictor (OR 5.14 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.47-18.0) for surgery without high-risk criteria.

Conclusion: A high cyst CEA level was significantly associated with the decision to operate outside of consensus-based guidelines. The misuse of cyst CEA in the management of pancreatic cysts negatively impacts patient anxiety, increases physician uncertainty, and leads to surgery with minimal benefit.