a statistical model based on serological parameters for predicting occult HBV infection: implications for organ/ blood donations.

The transmission of hepatitis B virus by donors with occult HBV infection (OBI) is a threat for blood transfusion and organ/tissue transplantation. The risk of carrying HBV DNA is currently not predictable by simple serologic markers, while HBV DNA testing is not universally deployed. This study evaluated an integrated serologic approach for assessing this risk. Anti-HBc positive subjects (461 HIV-negative, 262 HIV-positive) were selected for the study. Serology was analyzed by a commercial CMIA technique. HBV DNA was analyzed by both commercial and home-brew real-time amplification assays. A penalized maximum likelihood logistic approach was used to analyze the data. In HBsAg-negative subjects (HIV-negative), anti-HBc signal/cut off values, the presence of anti-HBc IgM, the absence of anti-HBsAg, and the absence of anti-HCV were correlated to the probability of finding circulating HBV DNA. A model for predicting HBV DNA presence by 4 serological parameters is therefore proposed. The predictive value of the logistic model based on simple serologic markers may represent a reasonable tool for the assessment of HBV transmission risk by transfusion or organ/tissue donation in the context of limited resources and where nucleic acid testing is not performed. In addition, it may be helpful for assessing the risk of reactivation in immunosuppressed OBI patients.