[A prognostic model for predicting extracorporeal circuit clotting in patients with continuous renal replacement therapy].

Objective: To establish a prognostic model for predicting extracorporeal circulation clotting in patients with continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT).

Methods: 425 patients with CRRT were involved in the study. We built a predictive risk model of extracorporeal blood clotting with the 302 participants, and 103 participants were used to validate the model. The primary endpoint of CRRT was extracorporeal circulation pipe blockage.

Results: We used a score of 0-5 point evaluating system to predict the risk of 24 hours CRRT integral model of cardiopulmonary bypass clogging. The area under the CRRT predictive model of cardiopulmonary bypass clogging integral system ROC curve was 0.790 (95% CI 0.719-0.826) (P<0.001). The evaluating system can determine the blockage of 24 hours CRRT extracorporeal circulation. The results showed that CRRT extracorporeal plugging prediction fitted the integral model and could predict the chance of plugging. The actual plugging rate showed no significant difference from the predicted rate (R² = 0.301, P=0.232). The cardiopulmonary pipe survival time between the 3 groups(low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) showed a significant difference (P<0.05).

Conclusion: We established a continuity extracorporeal blood purification plugging risk score model, to predict plugging risks during CRRT treatment.