[Prevention of an outbreak of Acinetobacter baumannii in intensive care units: study of the efficacy of different mathematical methods].

Introduction: Although in past decades, Acinetobacter baumanni infections have been sporadically identified in hospitals, nowadays the nosocomial infections due to this pathogen have notably increased. Its importance is due to its multidrug- resistance, morbidity and mortatility in healthcare settings. Consequently, it is important to predict the evolution of these outbreaks in order to stablish the most efficient control measures. There are several experimental studies shown that the compliance with hand and environmental hygiene and the efficient management of the healthcare work help to control the evolution of these outbreaks. The goal of this work is to formally proof these experimental results by means of the analysis of the results provided by the model.

Methods: A stochastic mathematical model based on cellular automata was developed. The variables and parameters involved in it have been identified from the knowledge of the epidemiology and main characteristics of Acinetobacter infections.

Results: The model provides several simulations from different initial conditions. The analysis of these results proofs in a formal way that the compliance with hand and environmental hygiene and an efficient plannification of the work of healtcare workers yield a decrease in the colonized patients. Moreover, this is the unique model proposed studying the dynamics of an outbreak of A. baumanni.

Conclusions: The computational implementation of the model provides us an efficient tool in the management of outbreaks due to A. baumanni. The analysis of the simulations obtained allows us to obtain a formal proof of the behaviour of the measures for control and prevention.