Prognostic role of simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and the European Society of Cardiology Prognostic Model in short- and long-term risk stratification in pulmonary embolism.

Objectives: Hemodynamic status, cardiac enzymes, and imaging-based risk stratification are frequently used to evaluate a pulmonary embolism (PE). This study investigated the prognostic role of a simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) score and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) model. Methods : The study included 50 patients from the emergency and pulmonology department of one medical center between October 2005 and June 2006. The ability of the sPESI and ESC model to predict short-term (in-hospital) and long-term (6-month and 6-year) overall mortality was assessed, in addition to the accurancy of the sPESI and ESC model in predicting short-term adverse events, such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation, or major bleeding. Results : Of the 50 patients, the in-hospital and 6-year mortality rates were 14% and 46%, respectively. Fifteen (30%) of these experienced adverse events during hospitalization. Importantly, patients classified as low-risk according to the sPESI had no short-term adverse events as opposed to 4.8 % in the ESC low-risk group. They also had no in-hospital, 6-month, or 6-year mortality compared to 4.8%, %14.3, and %23.8, respectively, in the ESC low-risk group.

Conclusions: The sPESI predicted short-term and long-term survival. The exclusion of short-term adverse events does not appear to require imaging and laboratory testing.