Predictors of incidental gallbladder cancer in elderly patients.

Background: At the time of diagnosis, most patients with gallbladder cancer are in advanced stage and the cancer is unresectable. Long-term survivors are usually seen in a small number of patients with incidental gallbladder cancer. This study aimed to identify preoperative predictors of incidental gallbladder cancer in elderly patients.

Methods: A total of 4014 patients of more than 44 years old who had undergone cholecystectomy at our department from January 2000 to December 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate modalities were used to identify the predictive factors of incidental gallbladder cancer.

Results: Twenty-nine of the 4014 patients who had undergone cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases were histologically diagnosed as having incidental gallbladder cancer. Multivariate analysis identified that elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 combined with carcinoembryonic antigen and/or carbohydrate antigen 125 (P=0.045), a gallbladder polyp greater than or equal to 1.2 cm (P=0.043) and focal gallbladder wall thickening of more than or equal to 5 mm (P=0.002) were predictive factors of incidental gallbladder cancer.

Conclusion: Cholecystectomy is suggested for patients with these predictive factors and intraoperative frozen section should be considered to rule out carcinoma.