Simple predictive model for Early Childhood Caries of Chilean children.

Introduction: Early Childhood Caries (ECC), in both industrialized and developing countries, is the most prevalent chronic disease in childhood and it is still a health public problem, affecting mainly populations considered as vulnerable, despite being preventable.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to obtain a simple predictive model based on risk factors for improving public health strategies for ECC prevention for 3-5 year-old children.

Methods: Clinical, environmental and psycho-socio-cultural data of children (n=250) aged 3-5 years, of both genders, from the Health Centers, were recorded in a Clinical History and Behavioral Survey.

Results: 24% of children presented behavioral problems (bizarre behavior was the main feature observed as behavioral problems). The variables associated to dmf ?4 were: bad children temperament (OR=2.43 [1.34, 4.40]) and home stress (OR=3.14 [1.54, 6.41]). It was observed that the model for male gender has higher accuracy for ECC (AUC= 78%, p-value=0.000) than others.

Conclusions: Based on the results, we proposed a model where oral hygiene, sugar intake, male gender, and difficult temperament are main factors for predicting ECC. This model could be a promising tool for cost-effective early childhood caries control.