Introduction: Proposed diagnostic criteria (international working group and National Institute on Aging and Alzheimer's Association) for Alzheimer's disease (AD) include markers of amyloidosis (abnormal cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] amyloid beta [Aβ]42) and neurodegeneration (hippocampal atrophy, temporo-parietal hypometabolism on [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET), and abnormal CSF tau). We aim to compare the accuracy of these biomarkers, individually and in combination, in predicting AD among mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients.
Methods: In 73 MCI patients, followed to ascertain AD progression, markers were measured. Sensitivity and specificity, positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios, and crude and adjusted hazard ratios were computed.
Results: Twenty-nine MCI patients progressed and 44 remained stable. Positivity to any marker achieved the lowest LR- (0.0), whereas the combination Aβ42 plus FDG-PET achieved the highest LR+ (6.45). In a survival analysis, positivity to any marker was associated with 100% conversion rate, whereas negativity to all markers was associated with 100% stability.
Discussion: The best criteria combined amyloidosis and neurodegeneration biomarkers, whereas the individual biomarker with the best performance was FDG-PET.
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