Risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation: accuracy of the alpha-fetoprotein model in a single-center experience.

Background: Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis after a liver transplantation (LT) is a major concern, and a strict Milan criteria selection of candidates does not accurately discriminate the relapse rate after LT.

Purpose: This study sought to analyze the risk factors affecting tumor recurrence after LT for related cirrhosis HCC and the application of the French prognostic model (preLT alpha-fetoprotein [AFP], size, number) in a single center.

Methods: In a retrospective observational study of LT for HCC and cirrhosis, clinicopathological features were analyzed. Also, the preoperative and postoperative AFP model score was calculated with a cutoff of 2.

Results: Of 480, 109 patients underwent cadaveric LT for HCC. Eight of them had a relapse (7%). High AFP level, AFP model score >2, high pathological tumor-node-metastasis (pTNM) stage, poor differentiation, macrovascular-microvascular invasion, infiltration, and R1 margin were statistically significant (P < .05) for recurrence. Also, in the preoperative model, AFP score >2 was a predictor of worse survival (1-, 3-, 5-, 10-year survival of 81%, 51%, 30%, 30% vs 90%, 76%, 73%, 69% in ≤2, with P = .005). Regarding the postoperative model, similar results were found (1-, 3-, 5-, 10-year survival of 84%, 47%, 37%, 37% vs 90%, 78%, 73%, 52%, P = .028) between AFP model score >2 and ≤2, respectively. However, Milan and up-to-7 criteria were not accurate in recurrence nor in survival.

Conclusions: The French AFP model has proven to be a more discerning prognostic tool than other established criteria in the prediction of recurrence and survival. Also, in postoperative prognosis, pathological risk factors for relapse such as pTNM, differentiation grade, macrovascular-microvascular invasion, infiltration, and R1 margin have been predictors of recurrence.