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Ambient temperature and hospitalizations of children due to respiratory diseases in Cuiabá-MT, Brazil.
Cien Saude Colet
January 2025
Departamento de Química e Energia. Faculdade de Engenharia e Ciências, UNESP/Campus Guaratinguetá. Guaratinguetá SP Brasil.
This study evaluated the role of temperature and fine particulate matter in hospitalizations of children living in Cuiabá-MT, obtained from DATASUS, between 01/01/2016 and 12/31/2018. Daily concentrations of the pollutant fine particulate matter were estimated using the CAMS mathematical model, made available by CPTEC. Diagnoses of tracheitis and laryngitis, pneumonia, bronchitis, bronchiolitis and asthma were included.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFRisks and rates, and the mathematical link between them.
Eur J Epidemiol
January 2025
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3A 1G1, Canada.
The risk over a given time span can be calculated as one minus the exponentiated value of the negative of the integral of the incidence density function (or hazard rate function) over that time span. This relationship is widely used but, in the few instances where textbooks have presented it, the derivations of it tend to be purely mathematical. I first review the historical contexts, definitions, distinctions and links.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFTime-varying reproduction number estimation: fusing compartmental models with generalized additive models.
J R Soc Interface
January 2025
Department of Mathematics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
The reproduction number, the mean number of secondary cases infected by each primary case, gives an indication of the effort required to control the disease. Beyond the well-known reproduction number, there are two natural extensions, namely the and reproduction numbers. As behaviour, population immunity and viral characteristics can change with time, these reproduction numbers can vary over time.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMechanistic models of humoral kinetics following COVID-19 vaccination.
J R Soc Interface
January 2025
Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Oakfield Grove, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK.
COVID-19 vaccine programmes must account for variable immune responses and waning protection. Existing descriptions of antibody responses to COVID-19 vaccination convey limited information about the mechanisms of antibody production and maintenance. We describe antibody dynamics after COVID-19 vaccination with two biologically motivated mathematical models.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEstimation of end-of-outbreak probabilities in the presence of delayed and incomplete case reporting.
Proc Biol Sci
January 2025
Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policymakers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a declaration (e.g.
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