Allergic diseases and asthma in the family predict the persistence and onset-age of asthma: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Family history of asthma and other allergic diseases have been linked to the risk of childhood asthma previously, but little is known about their effect on the age-of-onset and persistency of asthma until young adulthood.

Methods: We assessed the effect of the family history of asthma and allergic diseases on persistent vs. transient, and early- vs. late-onset persistent asthma in The Espoo Cohort Study 1991-2011, a population-based cohort study of 1623 subjects (follow-up rate 63.2%). The determinants were any family history (any parent or sibling); maternal; paternal; siblings only; parents only; and both siblings and parents. Analyses were conducted separately for asthma and allergic diseases while taking the other disease into account as a confounding factor. The outcomes were persistent, transient, early-onset persistent (<13 years) and late-onset persistent asthma. Adjusted risk ratios (RR) were calculated applying Poisson regression. Q-statistics were used to assess heterogeneity between RRs.

Results: Family history was associated with the different subtypes but the magnitude of effect varied quantitatively. Any family history of asthma was a stronger determinant of persistent (adjusted RR = 2.82, 95% CI 1.99-4.00) than transient asthma (1.65, 1.03-2.65) (heterogeneity: P = 0.07) and on early-onset than late-onset persistent asthma. Also any family history of allergic diseases was a stronger determinant of persistent and early-onset asthma. The impact of paternal asthma continued to young adulthood (early-onset: 3.33, 1.57-7.06 vs. late-onset 2.04, 0.75-5.52) while the influence of maternal asthma decreased with age (Early-onset 3.94, 2.11-7.36 vs. Late-onset 0.88, 0.28-2.81). Paternal allergic diseases did not follow the pattern of paternal asthma, since they showed no association with late-onset asthma. Also the effect estimates for other subtypes were lower than in other hereditary groups (persistent 1.29, 0.75-2.22 vs. transient 1.20, 0.67-2.15 and early-onset 1.86, 0.95-3.64 vs. late-onset 0.64, 0.22-1.80).

Conclusions: Family history of asthma and allergic diseases are strong determinants of asthma, but the magnitude of effect varies according to the hereditary group so that some subtypes have a stronger hereditary component, and others may be more strongly related to environmental exposures. Our results provide useful information for assessing the prognosis of asthma based on a thorough family history.