[Prognosis of dynamics and risk of exceeding permissible levels of 137Cs and 90Sr contents in fish in the Kiev Reservoir at the late phase of the Chernobyl accident].

On the basis of the radionuclide specific activity measurements made on 832 samples of fish in 2009-2011 and taking into account literature data, the parameters of the stochastic model have been derived to describe the 137Cs and 90Sr contents in typical commercial fish species in the Kiev Reservoir at the late phase of the Chernobyl accident, including: statistical variability, seasonal changes and monotonous long-term trends. At any fixed moment of the year the standard deviations of logarithms of the 137Cs and 90Sr specific activities in carnivorous and benthophage fish species do not reliably differ, making up at average 0.4. The maximum vari- ation of the 137Cs specific activity (a four-fold decrease from April to November) was observed in pike. The obtained values of the ecological half-life periods for 137Cs and 90Sr (1.3-14 years) in fish of the Kiev reservoir in 2002-2012 were significantly lower than both the radioactive decay periods and the estimates of the IAEA Chernobyl Forum. Based on the obtained model parameters, the dynamics of the 137Cs and 90Sr specific ac- tivities in main commercial fish of the Kiev reservoir has been described and the risk of exceeding the permis- sible levels of these radionuclides in fish at the late phase of the Chernobyl accident has been estimated. Now the risk of catching fish with the specific activities of 137Cs and 90Sr above the permissible levels (150 Bq/kg and 35 Bq/kg, respectively) does not exceed 10% (except perch in the spring spawning period that is banned for fishing in Ukraine). Corresponding risks for roach, white bream and rudd are less than 0.1%.