Selection and study performance: comparing three admission processes within one medical school.

Objectives: This study was conducted to: (i) analyse whether students admitted to one medical school based on top pre-university grades, a voluntary multifaceted selection process, or lottery, respectively, differed in study performance; (ii) examine whether students who were accepted in the multifaceted selection process outperformed their rejected peers, and (iii) analyse whether participation in the multifaceted selection procedure was related to performance.

Methods: We examined knowledge test and professionalism scores, study progress and dropout in three cohorts of medical students admitted to the University of Groningen, the Netherlands in 2009, 2010 and 2011 (n = 1055). We divided the lottery-admitted group into, respectively, students who had not participated and students who had been rejected in the multifaceted selection process. We used ancova modelling, logistic regression and Bonferroni post hoc multiple-comparison tests and controlled for gender and cohort.

Results: The top pre-university grade group achieved higher knowledge test scores and more Year 1 course credits than all other groups (p < 0.05). This group received the highest possible professionalism score more often than the lottery-admitted group that had not participated in the multifaceted selection process (p < 0.05). The group of students accepted in the multifaceted selection process obtained higher written test scores than the lottery-admitted group that had not participated (p < 0.05) and achieved the highest possible professionalism score more often than both lottery-admitted groups. The lottery-admitted group that had not participated in the multifaceted selection process earned fewer Year 1 and 2 course credits than all other groups (p < 0.05). Dropout rates differed among the groups (p < 0.05), but correction for multiple comparisons rendered all pairwise differences non-significant.

Conclusions: A top pre-university grade point average was the best predictor of performance. For so-called non-academic performance, the multifaceted selection process was efficient in identifying applicants with suitable skills. Participation in the multifaceted selection procedure seems to be predictive of higher performance. Further research is needed to assess whether our results are generalisable to other medical schools.